Timberwolves vs. Rockets prediction and picks, November 4, 2026
Minnesota Timberwolves (5-3) at Houston Rockets (7-1), , Toyota Center (Houston) in Houston on DAZN MIN.
On the board since November 4, 2026 · numbers refreshed Nov 5, 3:33 AM ET
Timberwolves-Rockets picks we favor
- SpreadTimberwolves +8.5 −112Model 64.6% vs 52.8% to break evenWide edge +11.8Posted
- TotalOver 220.5 −106Model 57.8% vs 51.5% to break evenWide edge +6.3Posted
- MoneylineTimberwolves to win +251Model 40.8% vs 28.5% to break evenWide edge +12.3Posted
| Market | Open | Now | Model fair | Model minus market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockets spread | −8.5 | −8.5 | −3.3 | +5.2 |
| Total points | 223.5 | 220.5 | 224.1 | +3.6 |
| Moneyline | MIN +251 / HOU −310 | MIN +145 / HOU −145 | ||
Previewing the Timberwolves vs. Rockets matchup
- With a 5-3 record and 2-3 in their last 5, the Timberwolves score 119.0 and allow 107.6 a game.
- With a 7-1 record and 4-1 in their last 5, the Rockets score 119.2 and allow 106.4 a game.
- The Timberwolves average 105.0 possessions per game (7th in the league); the Rockets 99.6 (29th). We put the total at 224.1, which is 3.6 points above the 220.5 shown.
- Rockets put up 119.2 a game with a 49.8% field-goal rate; the Timberwolves give up 107.6.
- The Timberwolves list 2 players as out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo.
- Steven Adams is the 1 out, per the Rockets' list.
- The model lists Rockets 3.3-point favorites, with a 59.2% chance of winning.
Injury status
Timberwolves injuries
- Day-To-Day Terrence Shannon Jr. G · hip · expected return Nov 4
- Out Anthony Edwards G · knee · expected return Dec 21
- Out Donte DiVincenzo G · achilles · expected return Apr 2, 2027
Rockets injuries
- Day-To-Day Clint Capela C · ankle · expected return Nov 4
- Out Steven Adams C · calf · expected return Nov 9
Official league injury report: 12:45 PM ET, Nov 4 PDF.
This season's team stats
| Per game | MIN | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 119.0 8th | 119.2 6th |
| Rebounds | 49.8 1st | 44.1 14th |
| Assists | 26.6 14th | 28.8 3rd |
| Field goal | 47.0% 10th | 49.8% 2nd |
| 3-point | 37.5% 7th | 39.1% 3rd |
| Free throw | 64.5% 30th | 81.6% 5th |
| Turnovers | 15.2 9th | 15.1 8th |
| Possessions | 105.0 7th | 99.6 29th |
Small type shows the league rank (8 and 8 games played). The better side is marked in bold.
A snapshot of the standings
| MIN | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Conference rank | 7th West | 1st West |
| Record | 5-3 | 7-1 |
| Games back | 2 | 0 |
| Home / road | 3-1 / 2-2 | 4-0 / 3-1 |
| Last 10, streak | 5-3, W1 | 7-1, W2 |
| Point differential | +11.4 | +12.9 |
| Projected wins | 52.8 | 57.6 |
| Playoff chance | 92.3% | 97.6% |
Projections come from 10,000 simulations covering the rest of the season; the full table is on NBA futures.
Leaders of the season
Timberwolves leaders
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwardsout | G | 4 | 33.8 | 33.2 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 48.1 | 40.0 | 75.0 |
| LaMelo Ball | G | 8 | 26.2 | 16.9 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 42.7 | 36.6 | 75.0 |
| Jaden McDaniels | F | 8 | 32.9 | 16.8 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 52.8 | 36.4 | 66.7 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | G | 8 | 30.2 | 15.8 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 51.5 | 41.9 | 84.6 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | F | 8 | 30.8 | 12.2 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 43.4 | 44.1 | 55.0 |
Rockets leaders
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alperen Sengun | C | 6 | 34.5 | 23.3 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 57.4 | 53.8 | 73.5 |
| Kevin Durant | F | 8 | 33.6 | 20.8 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 53.1 | 40.7 | 83.6 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | F | 8 | 34.5 | 18.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 49.0 | 48.1 | 88.0 |
| Amen Thompson | G | 8 | 32.6 | 16.0 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 52.6 | 28.6 | 76.5 |
| Fred VanVleet | G | 6 | 30.0 | 12.2 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 36.9 | 31.8 | 84.6 |
Starters and rosters we project
Timberwolves starters
- F Jaden McDaniels
- F Jonathan Kuminga
- C Rudy Gobert
- G Ayo Dosunmu
- G LaMelo Ball
Full Timberwolves roster (16)
| No. | Player | Pos | Height | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LaMelo Ball | G | 6' 7" | 25 |
| 19 | Joan Beringer | F | 6' 11" | 19 |
| 7 | Jaylen Clark | G | 6' 5" | 25 |
| 0 | Donte DiVincenzo | G | 6' 4" | 29 |
| 13 | Ayo Dosunmu | G | 6' 4" | 26 |
| 5 | Anthony Edwards | G | 6' 4" | 25 |
| 33 | Isaiah Evans | F | 6' 6" | 20 |
| 27 | Rudy Gobert | C | 7' 1" | 34 |
| 8 | Bones Hyland | G | 6' 2" | 26 |
| 24 | Jonathan Kuminga | F | 6' 7" | 24 |
| 41 | Trey Lyles | F | 6' 9" | 30 |
| 3 | Jaden McDaniels | F | 6' 9" | 26 |
| 15 | Zyon Pullin | G | 6' 4" | 25 |
| 4 | Terrence Shannon Jr. | G | 6' 6" | 26 |
| 9 | Cody Williams | F | 6' 8" | 21 |
| 44 | Rocco Zikarsky | C | 7' 3" | 20 |
Rockets starters
- F Kevin Durant
- F Jabari Smith Jr.
- C Alperen Sengun
- G Fred VanVleet
- G Amen Thompson
Starting fives for both teams come from each side's Nov 2 game, and confirmed lineups appear about 30 minutes before tip.
Full Rockets roster (17)
| No. | Player | Pos | Height | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Steven Adams | C | 6' 11" | 33 |
| 31 | Bogdan Bogdanovic | G | 6' 5" | 34 |
| 30 | Clint Capela | C | 6' 10" | 32 |
| 25 | Quadir Copeland | G | 6' 6" | 23 |
| 27 | Isaiah Crawford | F | 6' 6" | 25 |
| 7 | Kevin Durant | F | 6' 11" | 38 |
| 17 | Tari Eason | F | 6' 8" | 25 |
| 3 | Julian Phillips | F | 6' 6" | 22 |
| 28 | Alperen Sengun | C | 6' 11" | 24 |
| 15 | Reed Sheppard | G | 6' 2" | 22 |
| 36 | Marcus Smart | G | 6' 3" | 32 |
| 10 | Jabari Smith Jr. | F | 6' 11" | 23 |
| 8 | Jae'Sean Tate | F | 6' 4" | 31 |
| 1 | Amen Thompson | G | 6' 7" | 23 |
| 2 | Bruce Thornton | G | 6' 0" | 23 |
| 9 | Oscar Tshiebwe | C | 6' 8" | 26 |
| 5 | Fred VanVleet | G | 6' 0" | 32 |
This season's meetings and the last five games
Head-to-head meetings this season
- Nov 4 Timberwolves at Rockets, prediction
2025-26 meetings
- Regular season
- Timberwolves 2, Rockets 1
- Points per game
- Timberwolves 117.0, Rockets 116.7
| Date | Game | Matchup | Score | Winner and margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2026 | Regular season | Timberwolves at Rockets | 136-132 | Timberwolves by 4 |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Regular season | Rockets at Timberwolves | 108-110OT | Timberwolves by 2 |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Regular season | Timberwolves at Rockets | 105-110 | Rockets by 5 |
Timberwolves last five
| Date | Opponent | Result | Closing spread | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | vs Bucks | W 112-100 | −11.5 | W |
| Oct 31 | @ Spurs | L 111-121 | +12.5 | W |
| Oct 30 | vs Clippers | W 127-101 | −6.5 | W |
| Oct 28 | vs Warriors | L 114-119 | −3.5 | L |
| Oct 26 | @ Cavaliers | L 125-127 | +3.5 | W |
Rockets last five
| Date | Opponent | Result | Closing spread | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | vs Celtics | W 109-93 | −4.5 | W |
| Oct 31 | vs Thunder | W 119-98 | −2.5 | W |
| Oct 30 | @ Mavericks | L 111-116 | −5.5 | L |
| Oct 28 | @ Bucks | W 132-100 | −8.5 | W |
| Oct 26 | vs Hawks | W 120-110 | −4.5 | W |