NBA futures: projected standings, playoff and title odds
We play out the 1,093 games left on the schedule 10,000 times with our current ratings, then count how often each team wins the title, makes the playoffs and lands each seed.
NBA Finals predictions: who wins the title
- Pistons19.7%fair +408
- Rockets19.5%fair +413
- Timberwolves10.9%fair +817
- Spurs9.5%fair +953
- Celtics7.1%fair +1308
- Thunder5.1%fair +1861
- Raptors4.9%fair +1941
- Trail Blazers4.2%fair +2281
- Lakers4.0%fair +2400
- Cavaliers2.8%fair +3471
With no margin, fair odds convert our chance into the American price. If a book pays more, it's offering value on our numbers.
Eastern Conference projections and standings
| # | Team | W | L | PCT | GB | PPG | OPPG | Diff | Home | Road | Strk | L10 | Proj. W | Seed | Playoffs | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 76ers | 7 | 1 | .875 | 0 | 110.9 | 105.1 | +5.8 | 4-1 | 3-0 | W4 | 7-1 | 46.8 37–56 | 5 | 88.8% | 2.1% |
| 2 | Pistons | 6 | 1 | .857 | 0.5 | 111.9 | 100.3 | +11.6 | 2-0 | 4-1 | W3 | 6-1 | 57.3 48–66 | 1 | 99.3% | 19.7% |
| 3 | Celtics | 5 | 2 | .714 | 1.5 | 115.0 | 109.1 | +5.9 | 4-0 | 1-2 | L1 | 5-2 | 50.8 41–60 | 3 | 95.3% | 7.1% |
| 4 | Raptors | 4 | 3 | .571 | 2.5 | 119.1 | 111.4 | +7.7 | 2-1 | 2-2 | W1 | 4-3 | 47.9 38–58 | 4 | 91.4% | 4.9% |
| 5 | Cavaliers | 4 | 3 | .571 | 2.5 | 119.7 | 116.1 | +3.6 | 3-1 | 1-2 | L1 | 4-3 | 45.3 35–55 | 5 | 85.3% | 2.8% |
| 6 | Wizards | 4 | 3 | .571 | 2.5 | 109.4 | 107.4 | +2.0 | 2-1 | 2-2 | W2 | 4-3 | 32.9 23–43 | 10 | 30.4% | 0.1% |
| 7 | Hawks | 4 | 4 | .500 | 3 | 115.2 | 114.0 | +1.2 | 1-2 | 3-2 | W1 | 4-4 | 44.1 34–54 | 6 | 81.8% | 1.8% |
| 8 | Knicks | 3 | 4 | .429 | 3.5 | 106.4 | 105.1 | +1.3 | 2-2 | 1-2 | W1 | 3-4 | 43.9 34–54 | 6 | 82.2% | 2.7% |
| 9 | Hornets | 3 | 5 | .375 | 4 | 97.4 | 108.6 | −11.2 | 2-3 | 1-2 | L4 | 3-5 | 31.1 22–41 | 11 | 23.0% | 0.1% |
| 10 | Heat | 2 | 5 | .286 | 4.5 | 118.1 | 123.9 | −5.7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | L1 | 2-5 | 36.8 27–47 | 8 | 51.0% | 0.3% |
| 11 | Magic | 2 | 5 | .286 | 4.5 | 105.7 | 114.7 | −9.0 | 0-4 | 2-1 | L2 | 2-5 | 34.7 25–45 | 9 | 39.6% | 0.2% |
| 12 | Pacers | 2 | 6 | .250 | 5 | 111.8 | 115.6 | −3.9 | 0-4 | 2-2 | L5 | 2-6 | 28.2 19–37 | 12 | 14.2% | <0.1% |
| 13 | Nets | 1 | 6 | .143 | 5.5 | 105.6 | 114.1 | −8.6 | 0-3 | 1-3 | L1 | 1-6 | 25.5 16–35 | 13 | 8.7% | <0.1% |
| 14 | Bucks | 1 | 6 | .143 | 5.5 | 111.1 | 124.1 | −13.0 | 1-3 | 0-3 | L3 | 1-6 | 23.5 15–33 | 13 | 5.4% | <0.1% |
| 15 | Bulls | 1 | 6 | .143 | 5.5 | 112.6 | 128.9 | −16.3 | 0-2 | 1-4 | L5 | 1-6 | 22.1 14–31 | 14 | 3.5% | <0.1% |
Western Conference projections and standings
| # | Team | W | L | PCT | GB | PPG | OPPG | Diff | Home | Road | Strk | L10 | Proj. W | Seed | Playoffs | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rockets | 7 | 1 | .875 | 0 | 119.2 | 106.4 | +12.9 | 4-0 | 3-1 | W2 | 7-1 | 57.6 48–66 | 2 | 97.6% | 19.5% |
| 2 | Grizzlies | 6 | 1 | .857 | 0.5 | 123.0 | 110.1 | +12.9 | 2-1 | 4-0 | L1 | 6-1 | 45.8 36–56 | 7 | 68.2% | 1.8% |
| 3 | Trail Blazers | 5 | 1 | .833 | 1 | 120.2 | 109.3 | +10.8 | 1-1 | 4-0 | W2 | 5-1 | 48.7 38–59 | 5 | 79.0% | 4.2% |
| 4 | Lakers | 6 | 2 | .750 | 1 | 122.5 | 115.2 | +7.2 | 4-1 | 2-1 | W2 | 6-2 | 49.1 39–59 | 5 | 82.0% | 4.0% |
| 5 | Spurs | 5 | 2 | .714 | 1.5 | 117.6 | 108.3 | +9.3 | 3-2 | 2-0 | W5 | 5-2 | 52.6 43–62 | 4 | 90.9% | 9.5% |
| 6 | Thunder | 5 | 2 | .714 | 1.5 | 108.0 | 107.7 | +0.3 | 3-0 | 2-2 | W1 | 5-2 | 50.1 40–60 | 5 | 84.2% | 5.1% |
| 7 | Timberwolves | 5 | 3 | .625 | 2 | 119.0 | 107.6 | +11.4 | 3-1 | 2-2 | W1 | 5-3 | 52.8 44–62 | 4 | 92.3% | 10.9% |
| 8 | Warriors | 5 | 3 | .625 | 2 | 117.5 | 114.6 | +2.9 | 3-1 | 2-2 | W5 | 5-3 | 45.3 35–55 | 7 | 66.9% | 1.5% |
| 9 | Mavericks | 4 | 3 | .571 | 2.5 | 112.3 | 112.3 | 0.0 | 2-2 | 2-1 | L1 | 4-3 | 37.6 28–48 | 10 | 29.7% | 0.2% |
| 10 | Nuggets | 3 | 3 | .500 | 3 | 113.3 | 115.7 | −2.3 | 1-2 | 2-1 | L1 | 3-3 | 41.2 31–52 | 9 | 48.4% | 0.9% |
| 11 | Pelicans | 3 | 4 | .429 | 3.5 | 121.9 | 120.1 | +1.7 | 2-2 | 1-2 | W3 | 3-4 | 35.7 26–46 | 11 | 23.1% | 0.2% |
| 12 | Suns | 1 | 4 | .200 | 4.5 | 112.2 | 122.8 | −10.6 | 1-1 | 0-3 | L3 | 1-4 | 33.1 22–44 | 12 | 17.4% | 0.1% |
| 13 | Clippers | 1 | 6 | .143 | 5.5 | 108.1 | 115.4 | −7.3 | 1-2 | 0-4 | L6 | 1-6 | 34.0 24–44 | 11 | 18.2% | 0.2% |
| 14 | Jazz | 1 | 6 | .143 | 5.5 | 107.0 | 118.9 | −11.9 | 1-4 | 0-2 | L5 | 1-6 | 24.1 15–33 | 14 | 1.5% | <0.1% |
| 15 | Kings | 1 | 6 | .143 | 5.5 | 110.1 | 124.3 | −14.1 | 0-2 | 1-4 | W1 | 1-6 | 21.5 13–31 | 14 | 0.7% | <0.1% |
A seed from 1 to 6 heads straight to the playoffs; a seed from 7 to 10 goes to the play-in. Each table marks both cut lines with thin rules. In small type, projected wins display the middle 80% of simulated results.