NBA picks record
Every pick we publish goes into the ledger on game day before tip, with the line, the price and the time, and it is never edited. The record below is graded from that ledger only, from November 4, 2026.
- Graded
- none yet
- Units
- 0.00
- Picks still open
- 42
Picks with grades
No picks have been graded yet. The first 42 picks will be graded after tonight's finals. First posted Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET.
Picks still open
| Date | Game | Pick | Price | Band | Posted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | ATL @ WSH | Hawks -2.5 | −104 | Clear edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | ATL @ WSH | Under 232.5 | −110 | Wide edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | ATL @ WSH | Hawks to win | −142 | Clear edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | CHA @ BKN | Nets +3.5 | −110 | Wide edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | CHA @ BKN | Under 213.5 | −106 | Clear edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | CHA @ BKN | Nets to win | +136 | Wide edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | CHI @ NY | Knicks -11.5 | −115 | No edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | CHI @ NY | Under 233.5 | −105 | Wide edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | CHI @ NY | Bulls to win | +443 | No edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | CLE @ OKC | Thunder -2.5 | −105 | Clear edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | CLE @ OKC | Under 228.5 | −115 | Slim edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | CLE @ OKC | Thunder to win | −135 | Clear edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | DAL @ SA | Mavericks +11.5 | −115 | Clear edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | DAL @ SA | Under 227.5 | −111 | Slim edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | DAL @ SA | Mavericks to win | +411 | Wide edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | IND @ MEM | Grizzlies -7.5 | −103 | Clear edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | IND @ MEM | Over 228.5 | −115 | Slim edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | IND @ MEM | Grizzlies to win | −265 | Slim edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | LAL @ SAC | Kings +11.5 | −114 | No edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | LAL @ SAC | Over 234.5 | −110 | No edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | LAL @ SAC | Kings to win | +429 | Slim edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | MIA @ LAC | Clippers +5.5 | −111 | Wide edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | MIA @ LAC | Over 233.5 | −114 | No edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | MIA @ LAC | Clippers to win | +171 | Wide edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | MIL @ BOS | Celtics -11.5 | −112 | Clear edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | MIL @ BOS | Under 225.5 | −115 | No edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | MIL @ BOS | Celtics to win | −567 | No edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | MIN @ HOU | Timberwolves +8.5 | −112 | Wide edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | MIN @ HOU | Over 220.5 | −106 | Wide edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | MIN @ HOU | Timberwolves to win | +251 | Wide edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | PHI @ DET | Pistons -2.5 | −106 | Wide edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | PHI @ DET | Under 218.5 | −110 | Slim edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | PHI @ DET | Pistons to win | −130 | Wide edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | POR @ PHX | Trail Blazers -3.5 | −109 | Slim edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | POR @ PHX | Under 227.5 | −108 | No edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | POR @ PHX | Trail Blazers to win | −155 | Clear edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | TOR @ DEN | Raptors +4.5 | −110 | Wide edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | TOR @ DEN | Under 230.5 | −115 | No edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | TOR @ DEN | Raptors to win | +160 | Wide edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | UTAH @ NO | Pelicans -5.5 | −110 | Slim edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | UTAH @ NO | Over 234.5 | −115 | Slim edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
| Nov 4 | UTAH @ NO | Pelicans to win | −217 | Slim edge | Nov 4, 3:16 AM ET |
Record for each market and edge band
| Ledger | Group | Picks | W-L-P | Units | ROI | CLV | Beat close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live | All picks | 0 | |||||
| Live | Spread | 0 | |||||
| Live | Total | 0 | |||||
| Live | Wide edge | 0 | |||||
| Live | Clear edge | 0 | |||||
| Live | Slim edge | 0 | |||||
| Backtest | All picks | 214 | 114-100-0 | +3.84 | +1.8% | +0.75 | 48% |
| Backtest | Spread | 107 | 58-49-0 | +3.79 | +3.5% | +0.69 | 46% |
| Backtest | Total | 107 | 56-51-0 | +0.05 | 0.0% | +0.80 | 50% |
| Backtest | Wide edge | 91 | 52-39-0 | +8.55 | +9.4% | +1.58 | 62% |
| Backtest | Clear edge | 36 | 16-20-0 | −5.53 | −15.4% | +0.06 | 36% |
| Backtest | Slim edge | 49 | 27-22-0 | +2.58 | +5.3% | +0.27 | 41% |
Bet one flat unit on every pick at the price that was logged. CLV shows how many points the closing line shifted toward our side after we logged it. How the model works determines the bands.
The season backtest comes before the ledger
We didn't publish any of these picks. Using the DraftKings opening line, the same model covered every game from October 20, 2026 through November 3, 2026. Its ratings were fitted only to games already played. It returned 114-100, +3.84 units, with average CLV +0.75 points. Frozen Nov 4, 6:25 AM ET. The record above never counts it.
On Nov 2, the record was 17-13 at +2.45 units
| Game | Pick | Price | Band | Final | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH @ ORL | Magic -1.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 103-94 | L | −1.00 | +1.0 |
| WSH @ ORL | Over 226.5 | −110 | No edge | 103-94 | L | −1.00 | −2.0 |
| UTAH @ SA | Jazz +15.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 97-119 | L | −1.00 | −1.0 |
| UTAH @ SA | Over 229.5 | −115 | Slim edge | 97-119 | L | −1.00 | −3.0 |
| TOR @ LAC | Clippers +5.5 | −115 | Slim edge | 125-118 | L | −1.00 | −1.0 |
| TOR @ LAC | Under 220.5 | −110 | No edge | 125-118 | L | −1.00 | 0.0 |
| SAC @ DAL | Mavericks -9.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 115-100 | L | −1.00 | −2.0 |
| SAC @ DAL | Under 234.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 115-100 | W | +0.91 | +2.0 |
| POR @ DEN | Trail Blazers +4.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 118-110 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| POR @ DEN | Under 231.5 | −110 | No edge | 118-110 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| PHX @ GS | Warriors -4.5 | −110 | No edge | 113-116 | L | −1.00 | −2.0 |
| PHX @ GS | Over 227.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 113-116 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| OKC @ CLE | Thunder +4.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 117-112 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| OKC @ CLE | Under 226.5 | −110 | No edge | 117-112 | L | −1.00 | −3.0 |
| NO @ MEM | Pelicans +6.5 | −110 | No edge | 135-134 | W | +0.91 | +1.0 |
| NO @ MEM | Under 235.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 135-134 | L | −1.00 | +4.0 |
| MIL @ MIN | Timberwolves -10.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 100-112 | W | +0.91 | +1.0 |
| MIL @ MIN | Under 233.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 100-112 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| MIA @ LAL | Lakers -1.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 117-138 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| MIA @ LAL | Over 239.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 117-138 | W | +0.91 | −2.0 |
| DET @ CHA | Pistons -4.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 124-91 | W | +0.91 | +1.0 |
| DET @ CHA | Over 208.5 | −110 | No edge | 124-91 | W | +0.91 | +1.0 |
| CHI @ PHI | Bulls +11.5 | −110 | No edge | 107-126 | L | −1.00 | +1.0 |
| CHI @ PHI | Under 239.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 107-126 | W | +0.91 | −1.0 |
| BOS @ HOU | Rockets -5.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 93-109 | W | +0.91 | −1.0 |
| BOS @ HOU | Over 218.5 | −115 | Wide edge | 93-109 | L | −1.00 | −3.0 |
| BKN @ NY | Nets +14.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 90-103 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| BKN @ NY | Under 222.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 90-103 | W | +0.91 | +4.0 |
| ATL @ IND | Hawks -7.5 | −110 | No edge | 108-104 | L | −1.00 | +3.0 |
| ATL @ IND | Under 234.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 108-104 | W | +0.91 | +8.0 |
On Nov 1, the record was 4-4 at −0.28 units
| Game | Pick | Price | Band | Final | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR @ LAL | Raptors +4.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 125-131 | L | −1.00 | +1.0 |
| TOR @ LAL | Under 227.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 125-131 | L | −1.00 | +3.0 |
| LAC @ GS | Warriors -2.5 | −105 | Wide edge | 112-124 | W | +0.95 | −1.0 |
| LAC @ GS | Over 219.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 112-124 | W | +0.91 | +1.0 |
| BOS @ ORL | Magic +6.5 | −112 | Clear edge | 108-97 | L | −1.00 | 0.0 |
| BOS @ ORL | Over 222.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 108-97 | L | −1.00 | −1.0 |
| BKN @ IND | Nets +4.5 | −110 | No edge | 98-90 | W | +0.91 | +1.0 |
| BKN @ IND | Under 230.5 | −105 | No edge | 98-90 | W | +0.95 | 0.0 |
On Oct 31, the record was 6-8 at −2.54 units
| Game | Pick | Price | Band | Final | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC @ MEM | Grizzlies -10.5 | −115 | Clear edge | 105-136 | W | +0.87 | −3.0 |
| SAC @ MEM | Under 234.5 | −105 | Wide edge | 105-136 | L | −1.00 | +5.0 |
| POR @ UTAH | Jazz +6.5 | −110 | No edge | 112-90 | L | −1.00 | 0.0 |
| POR @ UTAH | Over 232.5 | −115 | Clear edge | 112-90 | L | −1.00 | 0.0 |
| PHI @ CHA | 76ers -1.5 | −110 | No edge | 109-104 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| PHI @ CHA | Under 216.5 | −105 | Wide edge | 109-104 | W | +0.95 | +5.0 |
| OKC @ HOU | Thunder +4.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 98-119 | L | −1.00 | +2.0 |
| OKC @ HOU | Over 218.5 | −115 | No edge | 98-119 | L | −1.00 | +1.0 |
| MIN @ SA | Timberwolves +11.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 111-121 | W | +0.91 | −1.0 |
| MIN @ SA | Over 227.5 | −105 | No edge | 111-121 | W | +0.95 | +3.0 |
| CLE @ MIL | Bucks +9.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 136-111 | L | −1.00 | +1.0 |
| CLE @ MIL | Under 236.5 | −105 | Clear edge | 136-111 | L | −1.00 | +2.0 |
| ATL @ NO | Hawks -3.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 99-121 | L | −1.00 | +2.0 |
| ATL @ NO | Under 239.5 | −115 | Slim edge | 99-121 | W | +0.87 | 0.0 |
On Oct 30, the record was 10-10 at −0.95 units
| Game | Pick | Price | Band | Final | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL @ TOR | Raptors -3.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 121-114 | L | −1.00 | +2.0 |
| ORL @ TOR | Under 226.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 121-114 | L | −1.00 | 0.0 |
| NY @ PHI | Knicks +1.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 93-98 | L | −1.00 | +5.0 |
| NY @ PHI | Under 231.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 93-98 | W | +0.91 | +7.0 |
| LAL @ GS | Lakers -1.5 | −110 | No edge | 95-112 | L | −1.00 | +1.0 |
| LAL @ GS | Under 234.5 | −115 | No edge | 95-112 | W | +0.87 | 0.0 |
| LAC @ MIN | Clippers +9.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 101-127 | L | −1.00 | +3.0 |
| LAC @ MIN | Under 230.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 101-127 | W | +0.91 | +8.0 |
| IND @ MIA | Heat +3.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 125-145 | W | +0.91 | +12.0 |
| IND @ MIA | Under 240.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 125-145 | L | −1.00 | +4.0 |
| HOU @ DAL | Rockets +4.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 111-116 | L | −1.00 | +10.0 |
| HOU @ DAL | Over 225.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 111-116 | W | +0.91 | −2.0 |
| DET @ BKN | Pistons -7.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 110-94 | W | +0.91 | +1.0 |
| DET @ BKN | Under 226.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 110-94 | W | +0.91 | +4.0 |
| DEN @ PHX | Suns +2.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 127-120 | L | −1.00 | −2.0 |
| DEN @ PHX | Under 233.5 | −105 | Wide edge | 127-120 | L | −1.00 | +2.0 |
| CHI @ BOS | Celtics -11.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 111-125 | W | +0.91 | +3.0 |
| CHI @ BOS | Over 232.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 111-125 | W | +0.91 | +4.0 |
| CHA @ WSH | Hornets -1.5 | −110 | No edge | 79-95 | L | −1.00 | 0.0 |
| CHA @ WSH | Under 234.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 79-95 | W | +0.91 | +16.0 |
On Oct 29, the record was 4-2 at +1.67 units
| Game | Pick | Price | Band | Final | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC @ NO | Kings +5.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 120-132 | L | −1.00 | −1.0 |
| SAC @ NO | Under 237.5 | −105 | Clear edge | 120-132 | L | −1.00 | +3.0 |
| MEM @ POR | Grizzlies +7.5 | −110 | No edge | 124-103 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| MEM @ POR | Under 232.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 124-103 | W | +0.91 | −1.0 |
| CLE @ ATL | Hawks -1.5 | −102 | Wide edge | 111-114 | W | +0.98 | 0.0 |
| CLE @ ATL | Under 239.5 | −115 | Slim edge | 111-114 | W | +0.87 | +2.0 |
On Oct 28, the record was 11-13 at −3.08 units
| Game | Pick | Price | Band | Final | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH @ CLE | Wizards +10.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 111-121 | W | +0.91 | +1.0 |
| WSH @ CLE | Under 239.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 111-121 | W | +0.91 | −1.0 |
| SA @ UTAH | Jazz +12.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 117-111 | W | +0.91 | −1.0 |
| SA @ UTAH | Over 234.5 | −105 | No edge | 117-111 | L | −1.00 | −2.0 |
| PHI @ IND | 76ers -1.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 114-109 | W | +0.91 | +6.0 |
| PHI @ IND | Under 237.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 114-109 | W | +0.91 | +3.0 |
| ORL @ TOR | Raptors -4.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 99-129 | W | +0.91 | +1.0 |
| ORL @ TOR | Under 223.5 | −110 | No edge | 99-129 | L | −1.00 | −1.0 |
| OKC @ DAL | Thunder -5.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 96-120 | L | −1.00 | −1.0 |
| OKC @ DAL | Under 230.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 96-120 | W | +0.91 | +3.0 |
| NY @ CHI | Bulls +7.5 | −115 | No edge | 133-127 | W | +0.87 | 0.0 |
| NY @ CHI | Under 234.5 | −105 | Wide edge | 133-127 | L | −1.00 | +1.0 |
| MIA @ ATL | Hawks -3.5 | −115 | Wide edge | 129-117 | L | −1.00 | −1.0 |
| MIA @ ATL | Under 239.5 | −108 | Slim edge | 129-117 | L | −1.00 | −4.0 |
| LAL @ LAC | Clippers +5.5 | −115 | Wide edge | 103-87 | L | −1.00 | +7.0 |
| LAL @ LAC | Over 228.5 | −105 | Clear edge | 103-87 | L | −1.00 | −4.0 |
| HOU @ MIL | Rockets -8.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 132-100 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| HOU @ MIL | Over 227.5 | −115 | No edge | 132-100 | W | +0.87 | −1.0 |
| GS @ MIN | Timberwolves -6.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 119-114 | L | −1.00 | −3.0 |
| GS @ MIN | Over 227.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 119-114 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| DEN @ NO | Pelicans +4.5 | −105 | Wide edge | 104-91 | L | −1.00 | 0.0 |
| DEN @ NO | Over 238.5 | −115 | Clear edge | 104-91 | L | −1.00 | +3.0 |
| CHA @ DET | Hornets +7.5 | −110 | No edge | 89-97 | L | −1.00 | 0.0 |
| CHA @ DET | Over 216.5 | −105 | Slim edge | 89-97 | L | −1.00 | −4.0 |
On Oct 27, the record was 2-6 at −4.18 units
| Game | Pick | Price | Band | Final | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC @ SA | Kings +18.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 103-130 | L | −1.00 | −1.0 |
| SAC @ SA | Over 230.5 | −110 | No edge | 103-130 | W | +0.91 | +2.0 |
| POR @ LAL | Trail Blazers +2.5 | −110 | No edge | 136-129 | W | +0.91 | +1.0 |
| POR @ LAL | Under 236.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 136-129 | L | −1.00 | +2.0 |
| DET @ NY | Pistons +3.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 97-111 | L | −1.00 | −1.0 |
| DET @ NY | Over 218.5 | −115 | No edge | 97-111 | L | −1.00 | +2.0 |
| BKN @ BOS | Celtics -11.5 | −115 | Slim edge | 124-125 | L | −1.00 | +2.0 |
| BKN @ BOS | Under 222.5 | −110 | No edge | 124-125 | L | −1.00 | −1.0 |
On Oct 26, the record was 12-6 at +4.96 units
| Game | Pick | Price | Band | Final | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH @ CHA | Hornets -2.5 | −115 | Clear edge | 103-110 | W | +0.87 | 0.0 |
| WSH @ CHA | Under 228.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 103-110 | W | +0.91 | +3.0 |
| PHX @ OKC | Thunder -9.5 | −115 | No edge | 114-125 | W | +0.87 | −1.0 |
| PHX @ OKC | Under 218.5 | −105 | Slim edge | 114-125 | L | −1.00 | −3.0 |
| MIN @ CLE | Timberwolves +4.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 125-127 | W | +0.91 | +1.0 |
| MIN @ CLE | Under 232.5 | −108 | Clear edge | 125-127 | L | −1.00 | −2.0 |
| MEM @ UTAH | Grizzlies +1.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 110-105 | W | +0.91 | +3.0 |
| MEM @ UTAH | Under 237.5 | −105 | Slim edge | 110-105 | W | +0.95 | 0.0 |
| IND @ MIL | Bucks +4.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 102-110 | W | +0.91 | +1.0 |
| IND @ MIL | Under 239.5 | −105 | Wide edge | 102-110 | W | +0.95 | 0.0 |
| GS @ DEN | Warriors +7.5 | −110 | No edge | 134-114 | W | +0.91 | +1.0 |
| GS @ DEN | Under 235.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 134-114 | L | −1.00 | −1.0 |
| DAL @ MIA | Mavericks +7.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 113-109 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| DAL @ MIA | Over 235.5 | −105 | Slim edge | 113-109 | L | −1.00 | +5.0 |
| CHI @ BOS | Bulls +13.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 99-134 | L | −1.00 | −1.0 |
| CHI @ BOS | Under 233.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 99-134 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| ATL @ HOU | Hawks +5.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 110-120 | L | −1.00 | +1.0 |
| ATL @ HOU | Over 229.5 | −105 | Slim edge | 110-120 | W | +0.95 | −1.0 |
On Oct 25, the record was 10-4 at +5.08 units
| Game | Pick | Price | Band | Final | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR @ MIN | Raptors +2.5 | −110 | No edge | 94-117 | L | −1.00 | −1.0 |
| TOR @ MIN | Under 231.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 94-117 | W | +0.91 | +3.0 |
| ORL @ NY | Magic +7.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 111-102 | W | +0.91 | +1.0 |
| ORL @ NY | Under 225.5 | −112 | Slim edge | 111-102 | W | +0.89 | +1.0 |
| MEM @ SAC | Grizzlies -3.5 | −110 | No edge | 123-112 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| MEM @ SAC | Under 236.5 | −115 | Wide edge | 123-112 | W | +0.87 | +2.0 |
| LAL @ UTAH | Lakers -6.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 132-123 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| LAL @ UTAH | Over 236.5 | −105 | Slim edge | 132-123 | W | +0.95 | +1.0 |
| LAC @ OKC | Clippers +14.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 101-108 | W | +0.91 | −2.0 |
| LAC @ OKC | Under 221.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 101-108 | W | +0.91 | −2.0 |
| IND @ BKN | Nets +5.5 | −105 | Wide edge | 136-109 | L | −1.00 | 0.0 |
| IND @ BKN | Under 232.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 136-109 | L | −1.00 | +1.0 |
| DET @ PHI | Pistons +2.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 106-93 | W | +0.91 | +4.0 |
| DET @ PHI | Over 226.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 106-93 | L | −1.00 | +2.0 |
On Oct 24, the record was 6-10 at −4.50 units
| Game | Pick | Price | Band | Final | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH @ CHI | Bulls +1.5 | −118 | Clear edge | 124-120 | L | −1.00 | +3.0 |
| WSH @ CHI | Under 243.5 | −108 | Wide edge | 124-120 | L | −1.00 | −1.0 |
| SA @ DAL | Mavericks +11.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 122-106 | L | −1.00 | −3.0 |
| SA @ DAL | Under 230.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 122-106 | W | +0.91 | +1.0 |
| NO @ DEN | Pelicans +11.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 135-141 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| NO @ DEN | Under 237.5 | −105 | Wide edge | 135-141 | L | −1.00 | −2.0 |
| MIL @ PHI | Bucks +12.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 116-127 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| MIL @ PHI | Under 230.5 | −105 | Wide edge | 116-127 | L | −1.00 | −4.0 |
| MIA @ CHA | Hornets +3.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 110-115 | W | +0.91 | −1.0 |
| MIA @ CHA | Under 231.5 | −105 | Wide edge | 110-115 | W | +0.95 | +4.0 |
| HOU @ ATL | Hawks -1.5 | −105 | Clear edge | 121-114 | L | −1.00 | −3.0 |
| HOU @ ATL | Under 230.5 | −115 | Clear edge | 121-114 | L | −1.00 | +3.0 |
| GS @ PHX | Warriors +6.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 122-131 | L | −1.00 | −3.0 |
| GS @ PHX | Under 224.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 122-131 | L | −1.00 | +3.0 |
| BKN @ CLE | Nets +11.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 121-125 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| BKN @ CLE | Under 232.5 | −105 | Wide edge | 121-125 | L | −1.00 | +4.0 |
On Oct 23, the record was 17-7 at +8.41 units
| Game | Pick | Price | Band | Final | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR @ WSH | Raptors -4.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 112-102 | W | +0.91 | +5.0 |
| TOR @ WSH | Under 235.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 112-102 | W | +0.91 | −1.0 |
| POR @ SAC | Trail Blazers -6.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 128-120 | W | +0.91 | +3.0 |
| POR @ SAC | Under 232.5 | −115 | Wide edge | 128-120 | L | −1.00 | +1.0 |
| NY @ BOS | Celtics -2.5 | −110 | No edge | 103-107 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| NY @ BOS | Under 223.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 103-107 | W | +0.91 | +3.0 |
| NO @ UTAH | Pelicans +5.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 119-120 | W | +0.91 | +4.0 |
| NO @ UTAH | Under 241.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 119-120 | W | +0.91 | +3.0 |
| MIN @ ORL | Timberwolves -1.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 115-93 | W | +0.91 | −3.0 |
| MIN @ ORL | Under 237.5 | −115 | Wide edge | 115-93 | W | +0.87 | +3.0 |
| MEM @ GS | Grizzlies +3.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 111-108 | W | +0.91 | −1.0 |
| MEM @ GS | Under 235.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 111-108 | W | +0.91 | −1.0 |
| LAC @ LAL | Clippers +9.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 117-125 | W | +0.91 | +1.0 |
| LAC @ LAL | Under 229.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 117-125 | L | −1.00 | +4.0 |
| HOU @ SA | Rockets +5.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 114-110 | W | +0.91 | +1.0 |
| HOU @ SA | Under 225.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 114-110 | W | +0.91 | +1.0 |
| DET @ MIA | Pistons +1.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 128-111 | W | +0.91 | +4.0 |
| DET @ MIA | Under 234.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 128-111 | L | −1.00 | −1.0 |
| DAL @ IND | Mavericks +5.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 121-105 | W | +0.91 | −2.0 |
| DAL @ IND | Under 234.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 121-105 | W | +0.91 | −7.0 |
| CHI @ MIL | Bucks -1.5 | +100 | Clear edge | 132-125 | L | −1.00 | 0.0 |
| CHI @ MIL | Under 239.5 | −115 | Wide edge | 132-125 | L | −1.00 | −2.0 |
| ATL @ CHA | Hornets +2.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 128-81 | L | −1.00 | 0.0 |
| ATL @ CHA | Over 226.5 | −105 | Slim edge | 128-81 | L | −1.00 | 0.0 |
On Oct 22, the record was 2-2 at −0.14 units
| Game | Pick | Price | Band | Final | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN @ OKC | Nuggets +7.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 84-96 | L | −1.00 | 0.0 |
| DEN @ OKC | Under 231.5 | −110 | No edge | 84-96 | W | +0.91 | −5.0 |
| CLE @ PHI | Cavaliers +4.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 106-114 | L | −1.00 | +2.0 |
| CLE @ PHI | Under 233.5 | −105 | Wide edge | 106-114 | W | +0.95 | −4.0 |
On Oct 21, the record was 11-11 at −0.93 units
| Game | Pick | Price | Band | Final | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH @ MEM | Grizzlies +2.5 | −102 | Wide edge | 103-123 | W | +0.98 | +4.0 |
| UTAH @ MEM | Under 241.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 103-123 | W | +0.91 | +1.0 |
| SAC @ LAC | Clippers -4.5 | −105 | Wide edge | 96-121 | W | +0.95 | +1.0 |
| SAC @ LAC | Under 230.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 96-121 | W | +0.91 | +4.0 |
| PHX @ POR | Suns +4.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 83-124 | L | −1.00 | +1.0 |
| PHX @ POR | Under 236.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 83-124 | W | +0.91 | +4.0 |
| MIN @ MIA | Timberwolves +3.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 131-106 | W | +0.91 | +2.0 |
| MIN @ MIA | Under 236.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 131-106 | L | −1.00 | −4.0 |
| MIL @ WSH | Bucks +6.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 116-128 | L | −1.00 | +2.0 |
| MIL @ WSH | Under 238.5 | −115 | Wide edge | 116-128 | L | −1.00 | −1.0 |
| IND @ NO | Pelicans +4.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 123-120 | W | +0.91 | +2.0 |
| IND @ NO | Under 240.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 123-120 | L | −1.00 | +2.0 |
| GS @ LAL | Warriors +5.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 105-127 | L | −1.00 | −1.0 |
| GS @ LAL | Under 231.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 105-127 | L | −1.00 | −2.0 |
| DAL @ HOU | Mavericks +8.5 | −110 | No edge | 110-128 | L | −1.00 | −1.0 |
| DAL @ HOU | Under 226.5 | −105 | Slim edge | 110-128 | L | −1.00 | −4.0 |
| CHI @ TOR | Bulls +8.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 92-135 | L | −1.00 | −2.0 |
| CHI @ TOR | Under 235.5 | −110 | Wide edge | 92-135 | W | +0.91 | −2.0 |
| CHA @ BKN | Hornets -4.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 110-103 | W | +0.91 | −3.0 |
| CHA @ BKN | Under 226.5 | −115 | Wide edge | 110-103 | W | +0.87 | +6.0 |
| ATL @ ORL | Hawks +2.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 132-125 | W | +0.91 | 0.0 |
| ATL @ ORL | Under 232.5 | −110 | Clear edge | 132-125 | L | −1.00 | −1.0 |
On Oct 20, the record was 2-4 at −2.14 units
| Game | Pick | Price | Band | Final | Result | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ NY | Knicks -3.5 | −118 | Slim edge | 106-100 | L | −1.00 | +1.0 |
| PHI @ NY | Under 229.5 | −105 | No edge | 106-100 | W | +0.95 | −2.0 |
| OKC @ SA | Thunder +1.5 | −110 | Slim edge | 116-104 | W | +0.91 | +3.0 |
| OKC @ SA | Over 228.5 | −115 | No edge | 116-104 | L | −1.00 | +1.0 |
| BOS @ DET | Celtics +2.5 | −110 | No edge | 113-121 | L | −1.00 | +4.0 |
| BOS @ DET | Under 224.5 | −105 | Slim edge | 113-121 | L | −1.00 | +4.0 |
Where the market has the edge over us
For straight win chances, the closing moneyline proved sharper than our model during the backtest. Across 107 games, its log loss was 0.5644, compared with 0.6063 for our model. Its Brier score was 0.1927, versus 0.2096 for our model. Lower is better for both measures. A record that hides its weak side isn't a record, so we show it.