Bucks vs. Celtics prediction and picks, November 4, 2026
Milwaukee Bucks (1-6) at Boston Celtics (5-2), , TD Garden in Boston on MyMi, Bucks App.
On the board since November 4, 2026 · numbers refreshed Nov 5, 3:33 AM ET
Bucks-Celtics picks from us
- SpreadCeltics -11.5 −112Model 58.4% vs 52.8% to break evenClear edge +5.6Posted
- TotalUnder 225.5 −115Model 50.7% vs 53.5% to break evenNo edge −2.7Posted
- MoneylineCeltics to win −567Model 85.0% vs 85.0% to break evenNo edge 0.0Posted
| Market | Open | Now | Model fair | Model minus market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtics spread | −14.5 | −11.5 | −14.5 | −3.0 |
| Total points | 225.5 | 224.5 | 225.2 | +0.7 |
| Moneyline | MIL +424 / BOS −567 | MIL +565 / BOS −565 | ||
Bucks vs. Celtics game outlook
- The Bucks are 1-6 overall and 1-4 over their last 5, putting up 111.1 points while giving up 124.1 a game.
- The Celtics sit at 5-2 overall and 4-1 in their last 5, putting up 115.0 a game while giving up 109.1.
- The Bucks have 105.2 possessions per game (6th in the league), the Celtics 101.9 (19th). Our 225.2 total is 0.3 points below the board's 225.5.
- The Celtics average 115.0 a game on a 45.7% field-goal rate; the Bucks allow 124.1.
- For the Celtics, Devin Carter is the 1 player out.
- With an 85.0% win probability, the model has Celtics 14.5-point favorites.
Player injuries
Bucks injuries
The Bucks injury list has no names on it.
Celtics injuries
- Day-To-Day Payton Pritchard G · shoulder · expected return Nov 4
- Day-To-Day Jayson Tatum F · rest · expected return Nov 4
- Out Devin Carter G · illness · expected return Nov 8
Official league injury report: 12:45 PM ET, Nov 4 PDF.
Team numbers for the season
| Per game | MIL | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 111.1 20th | 115.0 13th |
| Rebounds | 49.6 3rd | 42.4 20th |
| Assists | 25.7 20th | 26.9 11th |
| Field goal | 43.3% 25th | 45.7% 18th |
| 3-point | 33.3% 20th | 34.5% 17th |
| Free throw | 71.2% 29th | 78.4% 12th |
| Turnovers | 16.7 20th | 15.4 12th |
| Possessions | 105.2 6th | 101.9 19th |
Shown in small type is league rank (7 and 7 games played). The better side is shown in bold.
League standings at a glance
| MIL | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| Conference rank | 14th East | 3rd East |
| Record | 1-6 | 5-2 |
| Games back | 5.5 | 1.5 |
| Home / road | 1-3 / 0-3 | 4-0 / 1-2 |
| Last 10, streak | 1-6, L3 | 5-2, L1 |
| Point differential | −13.0 | +5.9 |
| Projected wins | 23.5 | 50.8 |
| Playoff chance | 5.4% | 95.3% |
These projections come from 10,000 simulations of what's left of the season. The full table is on NBA futures.
Leading players this season
Bucks leaders
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro | G | 7 | 30.3 | 21.9 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 45.9 | 43.1 | 69.6 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | F | 7 | 28.0 | 16.6 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 50.6 | 44.0 | 70.8 |
| Kel'el Ware | C | 7 | 19.3 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 0.7 | 44.1 | 25.0 | 73.7 |
| Ryan Rollins | G | 7 | 25.0 | 11.0 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 34.5 | 26.3 | 58.3 |
| Kyle Kuzma | F | 7 | 26.3 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 43.9 | 29.0 | 50.0 |
Celtics leaders
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | F | 7 | 35.1 | 27.0 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 41.8 | 22.9 | 87.0 |
| Paul George | F | 6 | 31.0 | 20.7 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 46.3 | 38.8 | 89.5 |
| Payton Pritchard | G | 7 | 28.0 | 13.4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 40.3 | 31.0 | 85.2 |
| Derrick White | G | 7 | 30.0 | 11.1 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 43.5 | 32.4 | 100.0 |
| Neemias Queta | C | 7 | 21.6 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 60.0 | 66.7 | 65.5 |
Expected starters and team rosters
Bucks starters
- F Kyle Kuzma
- F Jaime Jaquez Jr.
- C Myles Turner
- G Tyler Herro
- G Brayden Burries
Full Bucks roster (18)
| No. | Player | Pos | Height | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nate Ament | F | 6' 10" | 19 |
| 0 | Brayden Burries | G | 6' 4" | 21 |
| 21 | Ousmane Dieng | F | 6' 9" | 23 |
| 20 | AJ Green | G | 6' 4" | 27 |
| 11 | Tyler Herro | G | 6' 5" | 26 |
| 25 | Kasparas Jakucionis | G | 6' 5" | 20 |
| 24 | Jaime Jaquez Jr. | F | 6' 6" | 25 |
| 19 | Kam Jones | G | 6' 4" | 24 |
| 18 | Kyle Kuzma | F | 6' 8" | 31 |
| 12 | Caris LeVert | G | 6' 7" | 32 |
| 23 | Bogoljub Markovic | F | 6' 11" | 21 |
| 35 | Pete Nance | F | 6' 9" | 26 |
| 13 | Ryan Rollins | G | 6' 3" | 24 |
| 30 | Cormac Ryan | G | 6' 5" | 28 |
| 00 | Jericho Sims | C | 6' 10" | 28 |
| 5 | Gary Trent Jr. | G | 6' 5" | 27 |
| 3 | Myles Turner | C | 6' 11" | 30 |
| 9 | Kel'el Ware | C | 7' 0" | 22 |
Celtics starters
- F Jayson Tatum
- C Neemias Queta
- G Derrick White
- G Baylor Scheierman
- G Hugo Gonzalez
Each team's Nov 2 game supplies the starting fives; confirmed lineups appear about 30 minutes before tip.
Full Celtics roster (17)
| No. | Player | Pos | Height | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | Devin Carter | G | 6' 2" | 24 |
| 12 | Chris Cenac Jr. | F | 6' 11" | 19 |
| 45 | Mike Conley | G | 6' 1" | 39 |
| 52 | Luka Garza | C | 6' 10" | 27 |
| 13 | Paul George | F | 6' 8" | 36 |
| 28 | Hugo Gonzalez | G | 6' 6" | 20 |
| 8 | Ron Harper Jr. | G | 6' 5" | 26 |
| 30 | Sam Hauser | F | 6' 8" | 28 |
| 20 | Dillon Mitchell | F | 6' 8" | 23 |
| 11 | Payton Pritchard | G | 6' 2" | 28 |
| 88 | Neemias Queta | C | 7' 0" | 27 |
| 4 | Mitchell Robinson | C | 7' 0" | 28 |
| 55 | Baylor Scheierman | G | 6' 6" | 26 |
| 0 | Jayson Tatum | F | 6' 8" | 28 |
| 27 | Jordan Walsh | G | 6' 7" | 22 |
| 9 | Derrick White | G | 6' 4" | 32 |
| 77 | Amari Williams | F | 7' 0" | 24 |
This season's series plus the last five games
Season meetings
- Nov 4 Bucks at Celtics, prediction
2025-26 meetings
- Regular season
- Bucks 1, Celtics 3
- Points per game
- Bucks 94.2, Celtics 112.2
| Date | Game | Matchup | Score | Winner and margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Regular season | Celtics at Bucks | 133-101 | Celtics by 32 |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Regular season | Celtics at Bucks | 108-81 | Celtics by 27 |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Regular season | Bucks at Celtics | 79-107 | Celtics by 28 |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Regular season | Celtics at Bucks | 101-116 | Bucks by 15 |
Bucks last five
| Date | Opponent | Result | Closing spread | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | @ Timberwolves | L 100-112 | +11.5 | L |
| Oct 31 | vs Cavaliers | L 111-136 | +8.5 | L |
| Oct 28 | vs Rockets | L 100-132 | +8.5 | L |
| Oct 26 | vs Pacers | W 110-102 | +3.5 | W |
| Oct 24 | @ 76ers | L 116-127 | +12.5 | W |
Celtics last five
| Date | Opponent | Result | Closing spread | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | @ Rockets | L 93-109 | +4.5 | L |
| Nov 1 | @ Magic | W 108-97 | −6.5 | W |
| Oct 30 | vs Bulls | W 125-111 | −14.5 | L |
| Oct 27 | vs Nets | W 125-124 | −13.5 | L |
| Oct 26 | vs Bulls | W 134-99 | −14.5 | W |