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Cavaliers vs. Thunder prediction and picks, November 4, 2026

Cleveland Cavaliers (4-3) at Oklahoma City Thunder (5-2), , Paycom Center in Oklahoma City on KSBI, Thunder App, DAZN CLE.

Cleveland Cavaliers logoCleveland Cavaliers4-3Oklahoma City Thunder logoOklahoma City Thunder5-2

On the board since November 4, 2026 · numbers refreshed Nov 5, 3:33 AM ET

Our Cavaliers-Thunder choices

  • SpreadThunder -2.5 −105Model 54.2% vs 51.2% to break evenClear edge +3.0Posted
  • TotalUnder 228.5 −115Model 54.4% vs 53.5% to break evenSlim edge +0.9Posted
  • MoneylineThunder to win −135Model 61.2% vs 57.4% to break evenClear edge +3.8Posted
DraftKings market line compared with the model's fair line
MarketOpenNowModel fairModel minus market
Thunder spread−2.5−2.5−4−1.5
Total points227.5228.5226.5−2.0
MoneylineCLE +114 / OKC −135CLE +158 / OKC −158

A look ahead: Cavaliers vs. Thunder

  • The Cavaliers are 4-3 and 3-2 in their last 5, with 119.7 scored and 116.1 allowed a game.
  • The Thunder are 5-2 and 3-2 in their last 5, with 108.0 scored and 107.7 allowed a game.
  • Possessions per game: Cavaliers 104.7 (10th in the league), Thunder 101.1 (22nd). Our 226.5 total falls 2.0 points short of the 228.5 shown on the board.
  • The Thunder put up 108.0 a game on a 43.8% field-goal rate, while the Cavaliers give up 116.1.
  • The Cavaliers have 2 out: Jaylon Tyson, Peyton Watson.
  • Out for the Thunder are 4 players: Nikola Topic, Thomas Sorber, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren.
  • The model gives Thunder 4.0-point favorite status and a 61.2% win probability.

Injuries

Cleveland Cavaliers logoCavaliers injuries

  • Out Jaylon Tyson G · ankle · expected return Nov 6
  • Out Peyton Watson G · hamstring · expected return Nov 6

Oklahoma City Thunder logoThunder injuries

  • Out Nikola Topic G · back · expected return Nov 13
  • Out Thomas Sorber C · knee · expected return Nov 13
  • Day-To-Day Jaylin Williams F · back · expected return Nov 4
  • Out Cason Wallace G · shoulder · expected return Mar 2, 2027
  • Out Chet Holmgren C · knee · expected return Jan 2, 2027

Official league injury report: 12:45 PM ET, Nov 4 PDF.

Team numbers for the season

Per gameCLEOKC
Points119.7 5th108.0 25th
Rebounds47.9 4th46.6 9th
Assists29.0 2nd21.1 30th
Field goal46.9% 11th43.8% 24th
3-point36.9% 9th32.0% 26th
Free throw74.7% 23rd87.9% 1st
Turnovers14.0 4th13.7 3rd
Possessions104.7 10th101.1 22nd

The league rank appears in small print (7 and 7 games played). The better side is shown in bold.

Current standings

CLEOKC
Conference rank5th East6th West
Record4-35-2
Games back2.51.5
Home / road3-1 / 1-23-0 / 2-2
Last 10, streak4-3, L15-2, W1
Point differential+3.6+0.3
Projected wins45.350.1
Playoff chance85.3%84.2%

NBA standings

Running the rest of the season through 10,000 simulations produced these projections. The full table appears on NBA futures.

Leading players this season

Cleveland Cavaliers logoCavaliers leaders

PlayerPosGPMINPTSREBASTFG%3P%FT%
Donovan MitchellG733.121.95.35.446.839.181.6
Evan MobleyC732.919.18.03.657.653.364.5
James HardenG733.416.34.76.339.136.080.0
Jarrett AllenC727.715.18.71.463.166.768.8
Meleek ThomasG422.014.03.01.048.947.6100.0

Oklahoma City Thunder logoThunder leaders

PlayerPosGPMINPTSREBASTFG%3P%FT%
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG733.628.44.34.045.133.387.5
Ajay MitchellG726.917.03.63.450.019.095.5
Jalen WilliamsG331.713.74.73.338.533.380.0
Chet HolmgrenoutC330.012.09.31.340.733.3100.0
Jared McCainG725.010.33.32.134.728.281.8

Expected starters and rosters

Cleveland Cavaliers logoCavaliers starters

  1. C Jarrett Allen
  2. C Evan Mobley
  3. G James Harden
  4. G Donovan Mitchell
  5. G Meleek Thomas
Full Cavaliers roster (15)
No.PlayerPosHeightAge
31Jarrett AllenC6' 9"28
3Thomas BryantC6' 9"29
21Tristan EnarunaF6' 8"25
1James HardenG6' 5"37
33Mario HezonjaF6' 8"31
5Sam MerrillG6' 4"30
12Riley MinixF6' 7"26
45Donovan MitchellG6' 2"30
4Evan MobleyC6' 11"25
9Craig Porter Jr.G6' 1"26
24Tyrese ProctorG6' 4"22
15Meleek ThomasG6' 3"20
20Jaylon TysonG6' 6"23
88Ernest Udeh Jr.C6' 9"22
8Peyton WatsonG6' 8"24

Oklahoma City Thunder logoThunder starters

  1. F Jaylin Williams
  2. C Isaiah Hartenstein
  3. G Kenrich Williams
  4. G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
  5. G Ajay Mitchell

Each team's starting five comes from its Nov 2 game, and confirmed lineups post about 30 minutes ahead of tip.

Full Thunder roster (18)
No.PlayerPosHeightAge
23Brooks BarnhizerF6' 6"24
9Alex CarusoG6' 5"32
21Josh DixG6' 5"22
2Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG6' 6"28
55Isaiah HartensteinC7' 0"28
7Chet HolmgrenC7' 1"24
15Aday MaraC7' 3"21
3Jared McCainG6' 3"22
25Ajay MitchellG6' 4"24
Micah PeavyG6' 7"25
12Thomas SorberC6' 9"20
14Bennett StirtzG6' 4"23
Dalen TerryG6' 6"24
44Nikola TopicG6' 6"21
22Cason WallaceG6' 3"22
8Jalen WilliamsG6' 5"25
6Jaylin WilliamsF6' 9"24
34Kenrich WilliamsG6' 7"31

Last five games and the season series

Games between the teams this season

  • Nov 2 Thunder at Cavaliers, 117-112 (Thunder won)
  • Nov 4 Cavaliers at Thunder, prediction

2025-26 meetings

Regular season
Cavaliers 0, Thunder 2
Points per game
Cavaliers 108.5, Thunder 128.5
DateGameMatchupScoreWinner and margin
Feb 22, 2026Regular seasonCavaliers at Thunder113-121Thunder by 8
Jan 19, 2026Regular seasonThunder at Cavaliers136-104Thunder by 32

Cleveland Cavaliers logoCavaliers last five

DateOpponentResultClosing spreadATS
Nov 2vs ThunderL 112-117−4.5L
Oct 31@ BucksW 136-111−8.5W
Oct 29@ HawksL 111-114+1.5L
Oct 28vs WizardsW 121-111−9.5W
Oct 26vs TimberwolvesW 127-125−3.5L

Oklahoma City Thunder logoThunder last five

DateOpponentResultClosing spreadATS
Nov 2@ CavaliersW 117-112+4.5W
Oct 31@ RocketsL 98-119+2.5L
Oct 28@ MavericksL 96-120−4.5L
Oct 26vs SunsW 125-114−8.5W
Oct 25vs ClippersW 108-101−16.5L