Heat vs. Warriors prediction and picks, November 5, 2026

Miami Heat (3-5) at Golden State Warriors (5-3), 10:00 PM ET, Chase Center in San Francisco on NBA TV.

Miami Heat3-5

Golden State Warriors5-3

29.7% HeatWarriors 70.3%

Kalshi traders: Heat 29¢, Warriors 71¢ · DraftKings moneyline without the margin: 29.1% / 70.9%

On the board since November 5, 2026 · numbers refreshed Nov 5, 8:06 AM ET

Our picks for Heat-Warriors

SpreadHeat +7.5 −114Model 50.1% vs 53.3% to break evenNo edge −3.2Best price now −108 edge at this price −1.7Heat +7.5 · best of 8 books−108−108−108Average −110Implied 52.4%Our chance 50.1%Posted Nov 5, 6:26 AM ET
TotalOver 235.5 −114Model 57.5% vs 53.3% to break evenClear edge +4.2Best price now −105 edge at this price +6.3Over 235.5 · best of 7 books−105−110−110Average −110Implied 52.4%Our chance 57.6%Posted Nov 5, 6:26 AM ET
MoneylineHeat to win +230Model 29.6% vs 30.3% to break evenNo edge −0.6Best price now +240 edge at this price +0.2Heat to win · best of 9 books+240+240+240Average +231Implied 30.2%Our chance 29.6%Posted Nov 5, 6:26 AM ET

The market line at DraftKings compared with the model's fair line
Market	Open	Now	Model fair	Model minus market
Warriors spread	−4.5	−7.5	−7.5	0.0
Total points	238.5	235.5	239.0	+3.5

Line shop: Heat vs. Warriors odds

9 sportsbooks · updated Nov 5, 7:26 AM ET

Sportsbook	Spread		Total 235.5		Moneyline
Sportsbook	MIA +7.5	GS −7.5	Over	Under	MIA	GS
	−108	−114	−112	−109	+240▼	−303▲
	−110	−110	−110	−110	+225	−278
	−108	−114	−112	−109	+240▼	−303▲
	−108	−114	−112	−109	+240▼	−303▲
	not at this line	not at this line	not at this line	not at this line	+222▼	−278▲
	−114	−106	−110▲	−110▼	+230	−278
	−115	−105	not at this line	not at this line	+225	−278
	−110	−110	−105	−115	+235	−294
	−110	−110	−110	−110	+225	−278
Market average	−110	−110	−110	−110	+231	−287
At the open	−110	−110	−111▲	−110▼	+237▼	−297▲
Our fair price	−100 50.1%	+100 49.9%	−136 57.6%	+136 42.4%	+237 29.6%	−237 70.4%
Edge vs best price	−1.7	−1.4	+6.3	−9.7	+0.2	−3.1

Looking ahead: Heat vs. Warriors

Over their last 5, the Heat stand 3-5 and 3-2, scoring 118.0 a game and allowing 122.9 a game.
The Warriors sit at 5-3 overall and 5-0 over their last 5, with 117.5 scored and 114.6 allowed per game.
Heat played last night, so our fit knocks 2.1 points off their side for the second night in a back-to-back.
Possessions per game: the Heat 106.6 (3rd in the league) and the Warriors 101.1 (23rd). Our 239.0 total comes in 3.5 points higher than the 235.5 posted on the board.
The Warriors average 117.5 a game on a 45.5% field-goal rate, and the Heat give up 122.9.
The Warriors are missing 4: Gui Santos, Kristaps Porzingis, and Moses Moody, plus Jimmy Butler III.
Home court is worth 1.7 points, rest 2.1 and season form 3.7 in our model, which makes the Warriors 7.5-point favorites and puts their win chance at 70.3%.

Injuries list

Heat injuries

The Heat injury list is empty.

Warriors injuries

Out Gui Santos F · knee · expected return Nov 7
Out Kristaps Porzingis C · illness · expected return Dec 1
Out Moses Moody G · knee · expected return Dec 1
Out Jimmy Butler III F · knee · expected return Jan 2, 2027

Official league injury report: 12:45 AM ET, Nov 5 PDF.

This season's team stats

Per game	MIA	GS
Points	118.0 7th	117.5 10th
Rebounds	43.2 19th	43.9 16th
Assists	29.5 2nd	26.8 11th
Field goal	47.2% 9th	45.5% 16th
3-point	33.5% 20th	38.9% 2nd
Free throw	73.9% 26th	81.8% 5th
Turnovers	15.1 11th	16.5 20th
Possessions	106.6 3rd	101.1 23rd

League rank appears in small type, with 8 and 8 games played. The better side is shown in bold.

Standings at a glance

	MIA	GS
Conference rank	9th East	8th West
Record	3-5	5-3
Games back	4.5	1.5
Home / road	1-3 / 2-2	3-1 / 2-2
Last 10, streak	3-5, W1	5-3, W5
Point differential	−4.9	+2.9
Projected wins	37.8	45.3
Playoff chance	55.1%	64.9%

NBA standings

Projections come from 10,000 simulations of what remains of the season; the full table is on NBA futures.

Leaders of the season

Heat leaders

Player	Pos	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
Giannis Antetokounmpo	F	8	33.0	28.2	12.5	5.8	56.2	21.1	65.8
Bam Adebayo	C	8	32.6	18.6	8.2	3.5	53.3	19.2	76.2
Davion Mitchell	G	8	34.6	15.4	1.5	8.2	50.0	40.0	73.3
Klay Thompson	G	8	23.4	14.1	1.8	1.5	45.5	42.5	100.0
Pelle Larsson	G	8	30.4	10.9	3.4	3.8	44.4	35.0	88.9

Warriors leaders

Player	Pos	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%
Stephen Curry	G	6	29.0	30.0	4.2	4.5	46.8	42.9	98.1
Yaxel Lendeborg	F	8	31.9	21.5	7.0	3.9	50.0	40.0	76.9
Brandin Podziemski	G	6	33.5	17.0	5.0	5.0	46.2	35.0	70.0
Brandon Williams	G	7	17.4	11.6	2.9	2.4	38.1	35.0	83.9
De'Anthony Melton	G	8	23.0	10.6	4.5	2.2	43.5	46.3	85.7

Starters and rosters, projected

Heat starters

F Giannis Antetokounmpo
F Andrew Wiggins
C Bam Adebayo
G Klay Thompson
G Davion Mitchell

The Nov 4 starting five; confirmed lineups arrive about 30 minutes before tip.

Full Heat roster (17)

No.	Player	Pos	Height	Age
13	Bam Adebayo	C	6' 9"	29
7	Giannis Antetokounmpo	F	6' 11"	31
4	Ryan Conwell	G	6' 3"	22
24	Tre Donaldson	G	6' 2"	22
0	Simone Fontecchio	F	6' 7"	30
15	Myron Gardner	F	6' 5"	25
50	Vladislav Goldin	C	7' 0"	25
10	Tim Hardaway Jr.	G	6' 5"	34
16	Keshad Johnson	F	6' 6"	25
5	Nikola Jovic	F	6' 10"	23
9	Pelle Larsson	G	6' 5"	25
2	Davion Mitchell	G	6' 0"	28
95	Bobby Portis	F	6' 9"	31
8	Nick Richards	C	6' 11"	28
12	Dru Smith	G	6' 2"	28
11	Klay Thompson	G	6' 5"	36
22	Andrew Wiggins	F	6' 7"	31

Warriors starters

F Draymond Green
F Yaxel Lendeborg
G Stephen Curry
G Brandin Podziemski
G Will Richard

The Nov 2 starting five; confirmed lineups arrive about 30 minutes before tip.

Full Warriors roster (18)

No.	Player	Pos	Height	Age
28	Charles Bassey	C	6' 10"	26
10	Jimmy Butler III	F	6' 6"	37
18	LJ Cryer	G	6' 0"	25
30	Stephen Curry	G	6' 2"	38
23	Draymond Green	F	6' 6"	36
20	Al Horford	C	6' 8"	40
unlisted	Graham Ike	F	6' 9"	24
1	Yaxel Lendeborg	F	6' 9"	24
33	Malevy Leons	F	6' 9"	27
8	De'Anthony Melton	G	6' 2"	28
4	Moses Moody	G	6' 5"	24
32	Georges Niang	F	6' 6"	33
0	Gary Payton II	G	6' 2"	33
2	Brandin Podziemski	G	6' 4"	23
7	Kristaps Porzingis	C	7' 2"	31
3	Will Richard	G	6' 3"	23
15	Gui Santos	F	6' 7"	24
12	Brandon Williams	G	6' 1"	26

Last five games and the season series

This season's meetings

Nov 5 Heat at Warriors, prediction

2025-26 meetings

Regular season: Heat 1, Warriors 1
Points per game: Heat 111.0, Warriors 115.5

Date	Game	Matchup	Score	Winner and margin
Jan 19, 2026	Regular season	Heat at Warriors	112-135	Warriors by 23
Nov 19, 2025	Regular season	Warriors at Heat	96-110	Heat by 14

Heat last five

Date	Opponent	Result	Closing spread	ATS
Nov 4	@ Clippers	W 117-116	−6.5	L
Nov 2	@ Lakers	L 117-138	+1.5	L
Oct 30	vs Pacers	W 145-125	−8.5	W
Oct 28	@ Hawks	W 129-117	+2.5	W
Oct 26	vs Mavericks	L 109-113	−7.5	L

Warriors last five

Date	Opponent	Result	Closing spread	ATS
Nov 2	vs Suns	W 116-113	−2.5	W
Nov 1	vs Clippers	W 124-112	−1.5	W
Oct 30	vs Lakers	W 112-95	+2.5	W
Oct 28	@ Timberwolves	W 119-114	+3.5	W
Oct 26	@ Nuggets	W 134-114	+6.5	W