Heat vs. Warriors prediction and picks, November 5, 2026
Miami Heat (2-5) at Golden State Warriors (5-3), , Chase Center in San Francisco on NBA TV.
On the board since November 4, 2026 · numbers refreshed Nov 5, 12:20 AM ET
Our picks for Heat-Warriors
| Market | Open | Now | Model fair | Model minus market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors spread | −7.7 | −7.7 | ||
| Total points | 238.9 | +238.9 | ||
| Moneyline | MIA / GS | MIA +243 / GS −243 | ||
Looking ahead at Heat vs. Warriors
- The Heat are 2-5 overall and 2-3 over their last 5. They score 118.1 and allow 123.9 a game.
- The Warriors are 5-3 overall and 5-0 over their last 5. They score 117.5 and allow 114.6 a game.
- The Heat were in action last night. Our fit subtracts 2.1 points from their side for a back-to-back's second night.
- The Warriors average 117.5 points a game with a 45.5% field-goal rate. The Heat allow 123.9.
- The Warriors have 2 out: Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody.
- Our model has the Warriors 7.7-point favorites, with a 70.8% chance of winning. The gap comes from 3.9 for season form, 1.7 for home court and 2.1 for rest.
Player injury report
Heat injuries
- Day-To-Day Myron Gardner F · quadriceps · expected return Nov 4
- Day-To-Day Giannis Antetokounmpo F · wrist · expected return Nov 4
Warriors injuries
- Day-To-Day Brandon Williams G · quadriceps · expected return Nov 5
- Day-To-Day Gui Santos F · knee · expected return Nov 5
- Day-To-Day Al Horford C · rest · expected return Nov 5
- Out Kristaps Porzingis C · illness · expected return Dec 1
- Out Moses Moody G · knee · expected return Dec 1
Official league injury report: 12:45 PM ET, Nov 4 PDF.
This season's team stats
| Per game | MIA | GS |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 118.1 9th | 117.5 11th |
| Rebounds | 42.3 22nd | 43.9 16th |
| Assists | 28.7 4th | 26.8 12th |
| Field goal | 47.8% 5th | 45.5% 19th |
| 3-point | 34.8% 14th | 38.9% 4th |
| Free throw | 73.0% 28th | 81.8% 4th |
| Turnovers | 15.6 14th | 16.5 19th |
| Possessions | 105.9 3rd | 101.1 21st |
Small type marks the league rank (7 and 8 games played). The better side is shown in bold.
A snapshot of the standings
| MIA | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| Conference rank | 10th East | 8th West |
| Record | 2-5 | 5-3 |
| Games back | 4.5 | 2 |
| Home / road | 1-3 / 1-2 | 3-1 / 2-2 |
| Last 10, streak | 2-5, L1 | 5-3, W5 |
| Point differential | −5.7 | +2.9 |
| Projected wins | 36.8 | 45.3 |
| Playoff chance | 51.0% | 66.9% |
These numbers come from 10,000 simulations of what's left of the season. The full table is on the NBA futures page.
Leaders this season
Heat leaders
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | F | 7 | 31.9 | 28.4 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 58.6 | 23.5 | 61.9 |
| Bam Adebayo | C | 7 | 31.4 | 16.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 49.4 | 17.4 | 76.5 |
| Davion Mitchell | G | 7 | 33.4 | 16.0 | 1.4 | 8.0 | 51.8 | 45.7 | 71.4 |
| Klay Thompson | G | 7 | 21.7 | 11.9 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 43.9 | 41.1 | 100.0 |
| Pelle Larsson | G | 7 | 29.7 | 11.4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 46.8 | 38.9 | 90.6 |
Warriors leaders
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | G | 6 | 29.0 | 30.0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 46.8 | 42.9 | 98.1 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | F | 8 | 31.9 | 21.5 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 50.0 | 40.0 | 76.9 |
| Brandin Podziemski | G | 6 | 33.5 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 46.2 | 35.0 | 70.0 |
| Brandon Williams | G | 7 | 17.4 | 11.6 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 38.1 | 35.0 | 83.9 |
| De'Anthony Melton | G | 8 | 23.0 | 10.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 43.5 | 46.3 | 85.7 |
Starters and rosters, projected
Heat starters
- F Giannis Antetokounmpo
- F Andrew Wiggins
- C Bam Adebayo
- G Klay Thompson
- G Davion Mitchell
Full Heat roster (17)
| No. | Player | Pos | Height | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bam Adebayo | C | 6' 9" | 29 |
| 7 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | F | 6' 11" | 31 |
| 4 | Ryan Conwell | G | 6' 3" | 22 |
| 24 | Tre Donaldson | G | 6' 2" | 22 |
| 0 | Simone Fontecchio | F | 6' 7" | 30 |
| 15 | Myron Gardner | F | 6' 5" | 25 |
| 50 | Vladislav Goldin | C | 7' 0" | 25 |
| 10 | Tim Hardaway Jr. | G | 6' 5" | 34 |
| 16 | Keshad Johnson | F | 6' 6" | 25 |
| 5 | Nikola Jovic | F | 6' 10" | 23 |
| 9 | Pelle Larsson | G | 6' 5" | 25 |
| 2 | Davion Mitchell | G | 6' 0" | 28 |
| 95 | Bobby Portis | F | 6' 9" | 31 |
| 8 | Nick Richards | C | 6' 11" | 28 |
| 12 | Dru Smith | G | 6' 2" | 28 |
| 11 | Klay Thompson | G | 6' 5" | 36 |
| 22 | Andrew Wiggins | F | 6' 7" | 31 |
Warriors starters
- F Draymond Green
- F Yaxel Lendeborg
- G Stephen Curry
- G Brandin Podziemski
- G Will Richard
Both starting fives come from the Nov 2 game each side played. Confirmed lineups appear about 30 minutes before tip.
Full Warriors roster (18)
| No. | Player | Pos | Height | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Charles Bassey | C | 6' 10" | 26 |
| 10 | Jimmy Butler III | F | 6' 6" | 37 |
| 18 | LJ Cryer | G | 6' 0" | 25 |
| 30 | Stephen Curry | G | 6' 2" | 38 |
| 23 | Draymond Green | F | 6' 6" | 36 |
| 20 | Al Horford | C | 6' 8" | 40 |
| Graham Ike | F | 6' 9" | 24 | |
| 1 | Yaxel Lendeborg | F | 6' 9" | 24 |
| 33 | Malevy Leons | F | 6' 9" | 27 |
| 8 | De'Anthony Melton | G | 6' 2" | 28 |
| 4 | Moses Moody | G | 6' 5" | 24 |
| 32 | Georges Niang | F | 6' 6" | 33 |
| 0 | Gary Payton II | G | 6' 2" | 33 |
| 2 | Brandin Podziemski | G | 6' 4" | 23 |
| 7 | Kristaps Porzingis | C | 7' 2" | 31 |
| 3 | Will Richard | G | 6' 3" | 23 |
| 15 | Gui Santos | F | 6' 7" | 24 |
| 12 | Brandon Williams | G | 6' 1" | 26 |
The last five games and season series
Meetings between the teams this season
- Nov 5 Heat at Warriors, prediction
2025-26 meetings
- Regular season
- Heat 1, Warriors 1
- Points per game
- Heat 111.0, Warriors 115.5
| Date | Game | Matchup | Score | Winner and margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | Regular season | Heat at Warriors | 112-135 | Warriors by 23 |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Regular season | Warriors at Heat | 96-110 | Heat by 14 |
Heat last five
| Date | Opponent | Result | Closing spread | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | @ Lakers | L 117-138 | +1.5 | L |
| Oct 30 | vs Pacers | W 145-125 | −8.5 | W |
| Oct 28 | @ Hawks | W 129-117 | +2.5 | W |
| Oct 26 | vs Mavericks | L 109-113 | −7.5 | L |
| Oct 24 | @ Hornets | L 110-115 | −4.5 | L |
Warriors last five
| Date | Opponent | Result | Closing spread | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | vs Suns | W 116-113 | −2.5 | W |
| Nov 1 | vs Clippers | W 124-112 | −1.5 | W |
| Oct 30 | vs Lakers | W 112-95 | +2.5 | W |
| Oct 28 | @ Timberwolves | W 119-114 | +3.5 | W |
| Oct 26 | @ Nuggets | W 134-114 | +6.5 | W |